Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x2150…fa7b crypto 1007 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,245 (-15%) realized −$1,241 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%280W / 719L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$107
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$236
crypto 19% −$234
culture 11% −$37
politics 10% −$29
tech 7% −$81
finance 6% +$8
sports 6% −$29
world 4% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.1% -21.3% 13% 4% -13.3%
≤30d 77 -19.7% -27.3% 12% 4% -14.9%
≤90d 999 -35.9% -42.0% 28% 26% -16.8%
all 999 -35.9% -42.0% 28% 26% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.0% 26% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 26% -24.7%
15% -52.6% 26% -32.0%
20% -57.3% 26% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$1,241
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses280 / 719
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)999 / 1007
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 999 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 35¢ 32¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will Senne Lammens win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 40¢ 43¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $86 −$2 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $133 +$11 +8%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $23 −$3 -13%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $45 −$4 -8%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -5%
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $27 −$5 -17%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 13 $28 −$8 -30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -85%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$6 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 10 $42 +$2 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Jun 10 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Keith Morgan win the 2026 Watford mayoral election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 20-26 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Jun 10 $48 −$6 -14%
Will Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Jun 10 $199 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 10 $352 −$16 -4%
Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jim Baird be the Republican nominee for IN-04? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $8 59m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 35¢ $8 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 32¢ $0 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 34¢ $8 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 32¢ $0 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 35¢ $8 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 39¢ $0 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 7h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $30 7h
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 8h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $5 9h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ $6 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 44¢ $9 11h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 46¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 84¢ $25 13h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 90¢ $27 13h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 25h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 25h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $8 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.10 · official $91.10 (match) · 3500 history records