Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2152…16b4 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$51 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$67
sports 33% −$91
other 12% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 32% -8.7%
≤30d 25 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 32% -8.7%
≤90d 25 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 32% -8.7%
all 25 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 32% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 32% -8.7%
10% -39.9% 32% -17.4%
15% -45.7% 32% -25.4%
20% -51.0% 24% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$36 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Down 44¢ 32¢ $38 $27 −$11 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$37 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $163 −$75 -46%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$107 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$83 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$135 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$79 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$115 +103%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $378 −$152 -40%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $136 +$77 +57%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $40 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $40 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $80 40m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $86 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $83 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $208 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $184 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $100 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $111 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.23 · official $27.23 (match) · 50 history records