Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2153…a22c
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$8
sports 30% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $2 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 99¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $2 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $1 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $2 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $1 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 50% -41.0%
≤30d 6 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 50% -41.0%
≤90d 6 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 50% -41.0%
all 6 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 50% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 50% -41.0%
10% -32.2% 33% -46.6%
15% -38.8% 33% -51.8%
20% -44.8% 17% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.30 (match) · 18 history records