Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2154…e2ce sports 139 markets active 13h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%73W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$8
14 days−$87
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$11
other 44% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.5% -7.3% 53% 53% -15.6%
≤30d 139 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 53% -11.6%
≤90d 139 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 53% -11.6%
all 139 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 53% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 53% -11.6%
10% -14.9% 52% -20.0%
15% -23.1% 52% -27.8%
20% -30.7% 51% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses73 / 66
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $3 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 +$4 +129%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +123%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +90%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +83%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +93%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$3 +89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$4 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $4 +$4 +89%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 +$2 +79%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$2 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +65%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +91%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +79%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $3 13h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $3 13h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 98¢ $6 27h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 87¢ $5 28h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 38h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 38h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $8 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $12 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $5 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $3 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $6 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Paper Rex 52¢ $3 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $3 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 5d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records