Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x215b…5906 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$365 (+31%) realized +$370 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$380
other 20% +$13
crypto 6% +$7
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +52.4% +37.9% 29% 29% +25.7%
≤30d 73 +52.4% +37.9% 29% 29% +25.7%
≤90d 73 +52.4% +37.9% 29% 29% +25.7%
all 73 +52.4% +37.9% 29% 29% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.9% 29% +25.7%
10% ← realistic here +24.7% 29% +13.6%
15% +12.6% 29% +2.7%
20% +1.6% 27% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)73 / 82
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 34¢ 34¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Franco Ribero 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $19 +$29 +152%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $10 +$19 +190%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $19 +$44 +234%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $7 +$92 +1288%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $94 +$143 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$103 +734%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $30 +$68 +223%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$31 +1521%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$41 +409%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $11 +$53 +473%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$56 +224%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$65 +650%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $12 +$68 +554%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $6 +$9 +165%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$31 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 34¢ $18 2m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 30¢ $10 54m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 88¢ $48 56m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 34¢ $19 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Oliver Crawford 86¢ $29 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 29¢ $10 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 20¢ $10 2h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 7¢ $20 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 21¢ $20 3h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 6¢ $21 4h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 12¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 99¢ $62 4h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Conor Gannon 99¢ $0 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 29¢ $19 4h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Conor Gannon 86¢ $98 4h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 6¢ $7 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $55 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $55 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $58 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 88¢ $56 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 77¢ $42 25h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 25¢ $30 26h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 38¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.01 · official $130.04 (match) · 131 history records