Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x215b…8ec5 weather 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$262 (-4%) realized −$263 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate31%50W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$191
14 days−$89
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$214
finance 15% −$78
world 7% +$3
politics 6% −$10
crypto 2% −$50
sports 0% +$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +12.6% +1.8% 29% 23% -18.4%
≤30d 160 -6.2% -15.2% 31% 20% -14.7%
≤90d 161 -6.0% -15.0% 31% 20% -14.7%
all 161 -6.0% -15.0% 31% 20% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 20% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 19% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 12% -30.3%
20% -37.3% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses50 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage32d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$36 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$53 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $82 −$72 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$4 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$10 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $30 −$21 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $58 −$50 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 +$11 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 −$19 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$88 +1030%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$5 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$9 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$95 +651%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$49 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $3 +$17 +488%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$18 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $218 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $286 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$73 +162%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $293 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 −$29 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.94 · official $39.95 (match) · 868 history records