Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x215c…db03 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$719 (-5%) realized −$720 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%41W / 2L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$8
politics 34% −$728
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 0% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -14.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -23.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -30.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$366 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,589
Realized−$720
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses41 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage618d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,532 $1,530 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $646 $647 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $410 $411 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,320 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $669 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $916 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Feb 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 19 $15 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $57 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $231 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $573 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,032 −$728 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $644 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $646 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $410 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $888 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $263 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $220 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,100 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $912 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $669 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $916 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 102d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 102d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $87 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 124d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $55 124d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 124d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 124d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $57 283d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 99¢ $15 283d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 283d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 99¢ $11 283d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 283d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 283d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 283d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $5 283d
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $5 283d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,588.73 · official $2,588.73 (match) · 95 history records