Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2160…bcb3 sports 1594 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,871 (-10%) realized −$10,619 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%709W / 1036L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$1,662est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$451
other 5% +$1,230
crypto 2% +$390
politics 0% −$8
world 0% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 479 -54.7% -59.0% 24% 24% -69.7%
≤30d 826 -23.8% -31.1% 38% 38% -47.5%
≤90d 1745 -13.5% -21.7% 41% 40% -29.5%
all 1745 -13.5% -21.7% 41% 40% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 40% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 39% -36.3%
15% -36.0% 38% -42.4%
20% -42.3% 36% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$66 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$10,619
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses709 / 1036
Est. fees paid−$1,662
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1745 / 1594
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 19¢ 10¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 72¢ 100¢ $28 $39 +$11 (+39%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 16¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Denis Shapovalov 57¢ 14¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 57¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 48¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ravens vs. Chiefs Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafi Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Paris vs Simakin Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $410 −$410 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 15 $398 −$398 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Sea Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 15 $189 −$189 -100%
LoL: JDG vs AL Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Nationals vs. Braves Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (+1.5) Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Utah (-1.5) Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BK ROG Esports (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Senators vs. Blackhawks Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-27? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Mariners vs. Rays Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - CBLOL Cup Regular Season Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: P11 Esports vs Axolotl (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Pakistan T20 Series: Pakistan vs South Africa (Oct 28) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougars Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Rays vs. White Sox Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 1m
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 57¢ $41 21m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 91¢ $107 53m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 72¢ $114 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 19¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $102 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 61¢ $16 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 48¢ $48 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $51 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 42¢ $53 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 43¢ $56 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $51 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 59¢ $2 2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $71 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $25 2h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Luisina Giovannini 81¢ $19 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 70¢ $18 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 72¢ $14 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 80¢ $61 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $78 3h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $78 3h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $176 3h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 54¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $21 4h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 38¢ $41 4h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 79¢ $31 4h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 51¢ $41 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $51 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.56 · official $190.56 (match) · 3500 history records