Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2162…ccf7 other 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-37%) realized −$175 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%92W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$40
world 20% −$64
politics 15% −$41
tech 12% −$36
crypto 10% −$9
finance 2% +$1
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.9% +6.6% 67% 44% +23.3%
≤30d 29 -21.6% -29.0% 38% 31% -19.3%
≤90d 54 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 28% -7.9%
all 260 -29.4% -36.2% 35% 27% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 27% -43.9%
10% -42.3% 20% -49.2%
15% -47.8% 18% -54.1%
20% -53.0% 16% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses92 / 168
Open positions46
Markets (closed)260 / 306
History coverage317d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $13 $8 −$6 (-41%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Yes 12¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +117%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada recession before 2027? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +223%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 28 $1 $0 +30%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? May 28 $2 +$1 +73%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 28 $1 +$2 +201%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or mo May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Major US official out by April 30? May 28 $2 −$1 -34%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 19 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $16 +$15 +98%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 03 $1 +$6 +567%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +119%
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 24h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 25h
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? SELL No 95¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? SELL No 98¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 96¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? BUY No 30¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.46 · official $42.49 (match) · 633 history records