Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2162…929e weather 354 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+1%) realized +$57 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%310W / 39L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$6
14 days−$17
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$49
crypto 12% −$11
other 1% +$6
sports 0% −$9
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -1.7% -11.1% 91% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 349 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 349 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 12% -9.1%
all 349 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 12% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses310 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)349 / 354
History coverage25d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$16 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -65%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.34 · official $79.33 (match) · 1457 history records