Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2165…f598 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1085 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$76,957 (+67%) realized +$77,174 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate69%29W / 13L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,711per market
Trades / day1084.8pace
Fees−$3,922est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$10,440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$975
other 13% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1085 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 17% -8.3%
≤30d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 17% -8.3%
≤90d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 17% -8.3%
all 42 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 17% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1084.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 17% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 5% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 2% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$3,400) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
30.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$79 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10,440
Realized+$77,174
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$3,922
Open positions35
Markets (closed)42 / 67
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,711
Trades / day1084.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $638 $665 +$27 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? No 99¢ 99¢ $495 $497 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? No 98¢ 98¢ $493 $494 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? No 99¢ 99¢ $493 $493 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? No 98¢ 99¢ $492 $493 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $459 $492 +$33 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? No 97¢ 97¢ $486 $487 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? No 96¢ 97¢ $482 $486 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? No 95¢ 96¢ $475 $478 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $472 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $472 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $472 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $468 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? No 91¢ 92¢ $455 $457 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 89¢ 90¢ $446 $448 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? No 88¢ 88¢ $440 $442 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 88¢ 88¢ $440 $442 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? No 87¢ 88¢ $435 $437 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? No 85¢ 86¢ $425 $427 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $375 +$75 (+25%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $324 $329 +$6 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 6¢ $267 $294 +$27 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $173 $187 +$14 (+8%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $201 $101 −$101 (-50%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $290 $10 −$280 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,048 +$97 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,800 +$100 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,000 −$100 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,800 +$400 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,065 +$53 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $226 −$111 -49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,025 +$255 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $169 −$5 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $267 −$39 -15%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $176 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $722 +$4 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,000 +$60 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $76 +$4 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,759 −$59 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $571 +$23 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,939 −$1 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,200 −$600 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,700 +$12 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,100 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9,900 −$4 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,312 +$16 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $976 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,330 +$38 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$2 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $77 +$11 +14%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,206 +$66 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $932 +$141 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $708 +$44 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,900 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,534 +$97 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,400 +$10 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,694 +$406 +15%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $11,313 +$204 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,445 +$181 +3%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $921 +$61 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,050 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,256 +$51 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $499 +$14 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,100 −$106 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 0m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $18 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $9 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $101 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $249 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $23 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $3 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $4 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $8 12m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $21 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $27 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $59 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $11 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $136 16m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $172 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $7 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $25 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $57 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $16 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $0 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $25 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $6 22m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $8 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $20 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $15 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $10 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,439.69 · official $10,439.71 (match) · 3500 history records