Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2167…fa33 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$348 (-4%) realized −$261 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$632
14 days−$1,133
30 days−$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$412
other 2% −$64
crypto 0% −$6
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +29.1% +16.8% 65% 65% +14.2%
≤30d 62 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 45% -20.0%
≤90d 90 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -13.6%
all 90 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -13.6%
10% -23.6% 44% -21.8%
15% -31.0% 44% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 42% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$84 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$261
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 50
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage44d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) EDward Gaming 50¢ 36¢ $75 $53 −$22 (-29%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 21¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $36 +$23 +63%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $87 +$197 +226%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $174 +$110 +63%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $106 +$75 +70%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $181 −$5 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $175 −$172 -98%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $106 +$84 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $106 −$105 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $89 +$153 +172%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $174 +$144 +83%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $174 +$95 +55%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $174 +$102 +59%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 +$82 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $107 +$122 +114%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$147 +146%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $86 +$109 +126%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $174 −$174 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $172 −$172 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 11 $174 −$174 -100%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 11 $174 −$174 -100%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 11 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $173 −$173 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $213 −$210 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $173 +$144 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $84 +$51 +61%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 09 $107 −$105 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 09 $106 −$105 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $26 +$26 +100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 06 $111 −$110 -99%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 06 $71 +$48 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) Jun 06 $76 +$38 +50%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League G Jun 06 $61 +$51 +83%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $126 +$72 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $76 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 57¢ $101 14h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 60¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 60¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 63¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 60¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $87 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $174 23h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $106 24h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 58¢ $106 43h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 37¢ $43 47h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 49¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $175 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $175 3d
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 55¢ $106 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $86 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $89 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $174 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $174 5d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $86 5d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY Solary 64¢ $174 6d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Galions 58¢ $117 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $174 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY Leo Team 56¢ $51 8d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 40¢ $101 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $107 8d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $106 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.10 · official $188.10 (match) · 173 history records