Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x216b…8528 sports 894 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%454W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$6
14 days−$61
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$511
other 48% +$435
world 0% −$11
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.8% -23.8% 50% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 40 -20.9% -28.5% 48% 48% -19.0%
≤90d 136 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 56% -10.0%
all 892 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 51% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 51% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 50% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 46% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 39% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses454 / 438
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)892 / 894
History coverage230d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 91¢ $41 $58 +$17 (+42%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 47¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 397 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$30 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 +$16 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$21 +41%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $9 +$7 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 01 $15 +$5 +32%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $10 +$5 +48%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $26 +$24 +90%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5) May 25 $2 +$3 +134%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 May 25 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$30 +60%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 24 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 +$10 +31%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) May 23 $19 +$5 +27%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 21 $17 −$17 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mayar Sherif vs Martina Trevisan May 20 $3 +$2 +79%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $11 +$9 +83%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$2 +188%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will NEC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 27m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 20h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 51¢ $10 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $29 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $71 6d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 57¢ $9 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $50 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $20 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $18 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 53¢ $5 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $25 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 30¢ $2 8d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $30 12d
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $10 14d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 16d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 20d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 20d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 21d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 75¢ $15 21d
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.21 · official $60.21 (match) · 1468 history records