Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x2175…6396 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$4
sports 24% −$2
world 7% +$2
crypto 5% $0
other 5% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -17.2% -25.1% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -6.3% -15.3% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage229d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $224 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2 $0 -20%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $108 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $106 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $1 $0 -22%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $114 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA? Nov 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 14 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $110 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 0¢ $1 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 23d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 27d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 27d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 33d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 48d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 99¢ $104 110d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 113d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 113d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 129d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 145d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 145d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 148d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 150d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $109 151d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $109 152d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 152d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 155d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 156d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.97 · official $106.97 (match) · 167 history records