Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2176…bc30
sports · 341 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$30 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses151 / 169
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions19
Markets (closed)320 / 341
History coverage59d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5 Under 23¢ 46¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+98%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 66¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Under 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 28¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Shuai Zhang 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +237%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +123%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +206%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$1
crypto 19% −$38
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 42¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 28¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 14h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 14h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 31¢ $2 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 14h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 100¢ $3 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 SELL Under 99¢ $4 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $2 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 15h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 22¢ $2 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 79¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 +2.2% -7.6% 51% 45% -9.6%
≤30d 273 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 320 +1.8% -7.9% 47% 41% -16.8%
all 320 +1.8% -7.9% 47% 41% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -16.8%
10% -16.7% 39% -24.8%
15% -24.8% 33% -32.0%
20% -32.2% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.11 · official $31.11 (match) · 564 history records