Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2177…3fb4 politics 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$418 (+2%) realized +$905 · open −$487
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%82W / 89L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$28
14 days+$27
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% +$471
other 3% −$45
world 1% −$15
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.2% +2.4% 57% 43% -5.6%
≤30d 35 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 23% -2.0%
≤90d 82 +7.1% -3.1% 51% 26% -2.0%
all 171 +3.3% -6.5% 48% 23% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 23% -3.8%
10% -15.5% 13% -13.1%
15% -23.6% 8% -21.5%
20% -31.1% 6% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$3,556
Realized+$905
Unrealized−$487
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses82 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)171 / 225
History coverage152d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $631 $651 +$20 (+3%)
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? No 88¢ 99¢ $433 $489 +$56 (+13%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $443 $442 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $174 $180 +$7 (+4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $148 $151 +$3 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat? No 91¢ 92¢ $146 $148 +$2 (+2%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 75¢ 50¢ $216 $145 −$71 (-33%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Haiti elections delayed again? No 54¢ 36¢ $165 $110 −$55 (-33%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 81¢ 99¢ $72 $88 +$16 (+22%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-08 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $76 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 59¢ 84¢ $51 $73 +$22 (+44%)
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? No 93¢ 99¢ $68 $72 +$5 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-08 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+3%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $47 $61 +$14 (+29%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-16%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 92¢ 96¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? No 95¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio Jun 27 $275 −$15 -6%
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 27 $89 +$49 +55%
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French pr Jun 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-02 House seat? Jun 25 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 Jun 25 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $129 −$12 -10%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 20 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $6 $0 +4%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 10 $126 −$12 -9%
Will Trump Airport become law this year? Jun 10 $37 −$24 -67%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 08 $95 +$116 +122%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 08 $63 +$74 +117%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $279 +$21 +7%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $641 +$218 +34%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 07 $251 +$12 +5%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $7 $0 -5%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 05 $109 −$70 -64%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 04 $158 −$5 -3%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 04 $123 −$20 -16%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 03 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 03 $0 $0 -99%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 02 $87 +$69 +79%
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr Jun 02 $13 −$10 -74%
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French pr Jun 02 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French pr Jun 02 $17 −$13 -79%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? May 31 $151 +$11 +8%
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar May 26 $52 +$5 +9%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $391 −$2 -0%
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St May 21 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? May 20 $13 −$10 -76%
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 19 $94 −$8 -8%
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elec May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $204 +$78 +38%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? May 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 16 $433 +$24 +6%
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-05 House seat? May 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? May 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her May 14 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el May 10 $435 +$99 +23%
Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pres May 05 $8 −$5 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio SELL No 86¢ $145 22m
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio SELL No 68¢ $114 39m
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 1h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 27h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 29h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after th SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French pr SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French pr BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-02 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-02 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 2d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 97¢ $0 2d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 2d
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 2d
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,555.75 · official $3,555.74 (match) · 2827 history records