Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2177…eff5 crypto 374 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,632 (+40%) realized +$4,632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%115W / 259L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day118.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,066
14 days+$3,784
30 days+$4,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 31% +12.0%
≤30d 374 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 29% +19.7%
≤90d 374 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 29% +19.7%
all 374 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 29% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 29% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 27% +8.3%
15% -25.2% 25% -2.2%
20% -32.5% 22% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$18 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses115 / 259
Open positions0
Markets (closed)374 / 374
History coverage16d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day118.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 374 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$80 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$159 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $136 +$295 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $263 +$292 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$145 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $112 +$56 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$35 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$116 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$26 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $96 −$6 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $180 +$155 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$90 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$12 +533%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$42 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$144 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$232 +385%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2188 history records