Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2179…bedb
other · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$83 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$229 · open −$136
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$732
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Open positions115
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage21d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day160.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 115 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$65
14 days−$209
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $102 $51 −$51 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $79 $39 −$39 (-50%)
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $39 +$28 (+250%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $25 −$26 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $24 +$15 (+150%)
Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $1 $23 +$22 (+3100%)
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $19 +$9 (+100%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $19 +$6 (+50%)
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+400%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+750%)
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+150%)
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+250%)
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+350%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+450%)
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+250%)
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $9 +$6 (+150%)
Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+900%)
Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+750%)
Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+250%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $0 +$13 +6235%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$6 -19%
Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $92 −$88 -96%
Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$7 +106%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$12 +171%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sharks win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $140M and $155M at Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $110M and $130M at Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be greater than $150M at marke Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $90M and $110M at m Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be between $130M and $150M at Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be greater than $170M at marke Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be less than $90M at market cl Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be less than $125M at market c Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $155M and $170M at Jun 01 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $100 +$50 +50%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $20 −$10 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% −$402
tech 6% +$43
crypto 0% −$9
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 24m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 18h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 22h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $7 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 24h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 34h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +168.3% +142.8% 30% 30% -31.0%
≤30d 45 -10.3% -18.9% 18% 16% -33.2%
≤90d 45 -10.3% -18.9% 18% 16% -33.2%
all 45 -10.3% -18.9% 18% 16% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 16% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 13% -39.6%
15% -33.7% 13% -45.4%
20% -40.2% 11% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.46 · official $732.47 (match) · 3500 history records