Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2179…d206 weather 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$12 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +208% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +157% what you keep after slip
Net edge+157%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+178.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +207.8% +178.5% 90% 50% -5.3%
≤30d 10 +207.8% +178.5% 90% 50% -5.3%
≤90d 10 +207.8% +178.5% 90% 50% -5.3%
all 10 +207.8% +178.5% 90% 50% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +178.5% 50% -5.3%
10% +151.8% 10% -14.3%
15% +127.5% 10% -22.6%
20% +105.2% 10% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +208% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? No 70¢ 74¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? No 92¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $71 −$14 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $62 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $31 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $24 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 72¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $23 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 5¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 62¢ $17 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 62¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $18 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 37¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.16 · official $74.16 (match) · 57 history records