Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x217a…5dfa crypto 1331 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37,545 (-48%) realized −$37,562 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%802W / 528L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$415est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,186
crypto 22% −$1,855
other 5% −$2,133
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +17.2% +6.0% 61% 61% +12.5%
≤30d 282 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 50% -29.3%
≤90d 1330 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 50% -15.5%
all 1330 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 50% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 39% -23.6%
15% -28.2% 31% -31.0%
20% -35.3% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$36 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$37,562
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses802 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1330 / 1331
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 67¢ 100¢ $35 $52 +$17 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $4 +$4 +97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$18 +60%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $50 −$10 -20%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +110%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $27 +$11 +40%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 +$10 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 +$13 +69%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$6 +27%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $23 +$10 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$7 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$6 -64%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $81 +$17 +21%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14 +$11 +79%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $28 +$10 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$10 +510%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$23 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $35 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $40 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $50 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 71¢ $27 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 32h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $22 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $12 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $19 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $20 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.00 · official $51.98 (match) · 3500 history records