Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x217b…601a other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$11 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$16
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$19
crypto 8% −$7
sports 4% +$6
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.0% -45.8% 40% 40% -23.1%
≤30d 16 -27.4% -34.3% 31% 31% -11.7%
≤90d 16 -27.4% -34.3% 31% 31% -11.7%
all 16 -27.4% -34.3% 31% 31% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 31% -11.7%
10% -40.6% 31% -20.2%
15% -46.4% 25% -27.9%
20% -51.6% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$19 +351%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$57 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $38 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 23h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 8d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 9d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $9 9d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $53 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $26 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.57 · official $93.57 (match) · 49 history records