Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x217c…5952 crypto 1601 markets active 7h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%1429W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$43
14 days−$47
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -44.3% -49.6% 50% 31% -32.4%
≤30d 120 -22.8% -30.1% 68% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 779 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 35% -10.6%
all 1624 -2.2% -11.5% 88% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 17% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1429 / 195
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1624 / 1601
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -666%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1725%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -608%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -857%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -931%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -817%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1635%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -754%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -916%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -811%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -698%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 95¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records