Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x217d…111e crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized −$19 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%54W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days−$14
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$155
other 24% +$164
sports 5% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.3% -21.5% 59% 35% +6.2%
≤30d 91 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 31% -11.6%
≤90d 91 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 31% -11.6%
all 91 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 31% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 31% -11.6%
10% -24.3% 21% -20.1%
15% -31.6% 15% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses54 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage24d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $198 $257 +$59 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $143 +$75 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$30 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $27 +$59 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $44 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $62 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $102 −$40 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $143 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.30 · official $257.30 (match) · 298 history records