Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x217f…fb4d crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,101 (+19%) realized +$801 · open +$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$294
crypto 18% +$134
other 7% +$1,531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 79 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 42% -2.6%
all 79 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 42% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 42% -2.6%
10% -2.7% 38% -11.9%
15% -12.1% 24% -20.4%
20% -20.7% 16% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$32 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$3,024
Realized+$801
Unrealized+$300
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage85d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1,961 $2,191 +$230 (+12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $484 $563 +$79 (+16%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 +$1,894 +3612%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 03 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 02 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 02 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 02 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 01 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 01 $4 +$24 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 29¢ $259 5m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $75 18m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $54 26m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 13¢ $7 30m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $3 33m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $4 35m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $55 44m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $7 45m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 9¢ $189 46m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $4 47m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $0 48m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $5 53m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $184 55m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $60 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $42 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $50 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 12¢ $111 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $52 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 15¢ $20 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,024.08 · official $3,030.14 (match) · 303 history records