Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2184…4c8e sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-6%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$53
other 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.4% -17.2% 87% 13% -13.1%
≤30d 23 -8.4% -17.2% 87% 13% -13.1%
≤90d 23 -8.4% -17.2% 87% 13% -13.1%
all 23 -8.4% -17.2% 87% 13% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 13% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 4% -21.4%
15% -32.3% 0% -29.0%
20% -39.0% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$32 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Tunisia to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $90 +$3 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $90 +$2 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $90 +$4 +4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $93 −$90 -97%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $70 +$2 +3%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $27 +$3 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $85 +$5 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $50 +$8 +16%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $90 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $90 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $90 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 97¢ $90 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $90 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $90 3h
Tunisia to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY No 99¢ $90 3h
Netherlands to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 3h
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 0¢ $93 5h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 27h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $4 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records