Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2185…03f3 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2
other 43% −$7
crypto 3% −$3
culture 3% −$2
world 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -14.9% -23.0% 36% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 8% -10.0%
10% -30.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -37.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -43.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage696d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 97¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney apologize for her jeans ad in 2025? Feb 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? Nov 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? Sep 19 $2 −$1 -71%
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? Aug 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo register for presidential run? Jul 04 $3 $0 +0%
SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before March? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will there be less than 2 inches of snow in NYC in Jan? Feb 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Dec 28 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Cam Ward win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 24 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Nov 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day? Oct 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? Sep 01 $1 $0 +6%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Aug 06 $89 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 2d
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $75 2d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $503 38d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 38d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $156 38d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $156 40d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 40d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 40d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $496 40d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 40d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $270 90d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $251 90d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $270 91d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $250 91d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $248 91d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $250 91d
Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 132d
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 214d
Will Sydney Sweeney apologize for her jeans ad in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $1 226d
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 250d
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? SELL No 65¢ $2 250d
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands on October 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 250d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 61¢ $1 276d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? SELL No 58¢ $1 276d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 61¢ $1 276d
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? BUY No 63¢ $3 309d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 69 history records