Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2186…271b sports 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,014 (+16%) realized +$1,131 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%97W / 139L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$226
14 days−$385
30 days−$1,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,422
sports 32% +$215
crypto 13% −$715
world 7% +$288
tech 1% +$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +36.1% +23.2% 52% 52% +26.1%
≤30d 105 -44.2% -49.5% 20% 20% -46.8%
≤90d 160 -4.9% -14.0% 38% 38% +9.5%
all 236 +6.5% -3.6% 41% 41% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 41% +11.2%
10% -12.9% 41% +0.6%
15% -21.3% 40% -9.1%
20% -29.0% 39% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$1,131
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses97 / 139
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions11
Markets (closed)236 / 249
History coverage113d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 45¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 5¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$32 +157%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$12 +113%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $21 +$104 +508%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$68 +268%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $46 +$37 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$25 +123%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$17 +163%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $15 +$30 +194%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $15 +$8 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$58 +228%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 +$21 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $702 −$702 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $74 +$41 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$75 +163%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Jun 01 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $9 −$3 -35%
Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $7 −$2 -35%
Ryan Kalkbrenner: Points O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $17 +$15 +87%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Eng BUY 17¢ $10 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 18h
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $21 18h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 21h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $20 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 34h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 29¢ $31 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $21 3d
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $10 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $83 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 81¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 44¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.16 · official $343.16 · 549 history records