Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2186…53a1 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$903 (-1%) realized −$903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 103L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$841per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$16
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,714
politics 20% −$24
sports 13% +$735
economics 4% +$1
world 3% +$27
culture 2% +$26
crypto 1% +$3
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 2% -9.9%
all 135 -7.0% -15.8% 24% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -10.3%
10% -23.9% 9% -18.9%
15% -31.3% 7% -26.7%
20% -38.0% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,056) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$26 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized−$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage159d
Avg bet$841
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $532 $532 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $411 $411 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,356 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,777 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $908 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $9,284 −$9 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,766 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,945 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 29 $1,422 −$1,422 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $10,519 −$11 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $1,251 +$1,120 +90%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $3,176 −$3 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2,072 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $3,871 −$4 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $1,264 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 24 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $411 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $532 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $816 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $817 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $732 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $733 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $747 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $748 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $613 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $614 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $616 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $616 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $996 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $998 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $700 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $701 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $907 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $908 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $819 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $817 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $818 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $518 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $519 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $778 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $779 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.16 · official $943.16 (match) · 425 history records