Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

21 0x218a…f4b8 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$59 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$112per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+6.2%	-3.9%	88%	25%	-3.7%
≤30d	8	+6.2%	-3.9%	88%	25%	-3.7%
≤90d	8	+6.2%	-3.9%	88%	25%	-3.7%
all	8	+6.2%	-3.9%	88%	25%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.9%	25%	-3.7%
10%	-13.1%	0%	-12.9%
15%	-21.5%	0%	-21.3%
20%	-29.2%	0%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

71% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×67.15 per $1 lost it wins $67.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$142

Realized+$59

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage3d

Avg bet$112

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	Up	81¢	78¢	$146	$142	−$5 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$99	+$1	+1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$95	+$4	+4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 18	$96	−$1	-1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$134	+$13	+10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$125	+$9	+7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$112	+$13	+12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$100	+$12	+12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$100	+$4	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	79¢	$101	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	77¢	$99	3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	100¢	$99	3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	96¢	$95	3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	89¢	$96	3h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	81¢	$148	15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$134	32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	100¢	$134	32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$125	47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	89¢	$112	2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	89¢	$96	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	89¢	$100	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$104	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$100	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.98 · official $141.98 (match) · 17 history records