Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x218b…625a crypto 597 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,168 (-12%) realized −$3,939 · open −$229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%293W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$424est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days+$80
14 days+$1,244
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$3,919
crypto 28% −$570
other 0% +$9
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -12.0% -20.4% 61% 45% -8.2%
≤30d 141 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 590 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 34% -21.6%
all 590 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 34% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 34% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 25% -29.1%
15% -31.7% 13% -35.9%
20% -38.4% 10% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$3,939
Unrealized−$229
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses293 / 297
Est. fees paid−$424
Open positions7
Markets (closed)590 / 597
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 45¢ 44¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Prestige 95¢ 76¢ $124 $99 −$25 (-20%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Prestige 98¢ 45¢ $129 $59 −$70 (-54%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 89¢ 42¢ $113 $53 −$60 (-53%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Prestige 98¢ 60¢ $69 $42 −$27 (-39%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner KOLESIE 86¢ 43¢ $19 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 91¢ 57¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 86¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: The Kafe vs Disguised (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Gro Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $385 −$385 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $361 +$285 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $189 +$41 +22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $255 +$371 +146%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $341 −$337 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$9 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $496 +$4 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$51 +300%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $62 +$37 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $46 −$35 -76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $72 −$50 -69%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $63 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $71 +$34 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$10 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $37 +$3 +9%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $187 +$45 +24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $59 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $102 −$59 -58%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $27 +$5 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $72 +$32 +45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 +$3 +33%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $395 +$136 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $368 +$91 +25%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $182 +$92 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $130 +$98 +75%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $77 +$19 +24%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $77 +$10 +12%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $44 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $43 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $156 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$6 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 97¢ $11 25m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $87 27m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 90¢ $14 29m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 98¢ $53 53m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 98¢ $70 55m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 98¢ $7 55m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 98¢ $8 56m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 98¢ $61 56m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 90¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 90¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 91¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 95¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 95¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 95¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 95¢ $29 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $0 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $134 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $75 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $87 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $18 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $46 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $164 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $24 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $0 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.36 · official $435.63 · 3500 history records