Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x218d…b7e0 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,814 (-13%) realized −$1,814 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%61W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$3,804
sports 5% +$18
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -86.0% -87.3% 8% 8% -83.1%
≤30d 12 -86.0% -87.3% 8% 8% -83.1%
≤90d 68 -34.3% -40.6% 26% 24% -40.7%
all 191 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 30% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 30% -42.5%
10% -38.7% 25% -48.0%
15% -44.7% 21% -53.0%
20% -50.1% 18% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$47 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses61 / 130
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage138d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $138 −$131 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $84 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $143 −$43 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $82 +$56 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $80 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $43 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 08 $101 −$96 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 08 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 08 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 08 $85 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 08 $69 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$46 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 08 $46 +$63 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 08 $98 +$38 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 08 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 06 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 06 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$122 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 06 $38 −$10 -27%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 05 $40 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 05 $74 +$144 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 05 $61 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 05 $96 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 05 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 05 $52 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 05 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 05 $83 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 05 $85 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $108 +$49 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 05 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 05 $110 +$87 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 05 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 05 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 05 $36 −$34 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $6 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Team WE 1¢ $1 50d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 9¢ $10 50d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Team WE 4¢ $10 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $101 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records