Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x218f…c6ab other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$13
politics 37% −$12
sports 6% −$37
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -4.4% -13.5% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 92 -3.7% -12.9% 7% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage115d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $321 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $261 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $715 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $449 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $262 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $234 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $252 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $481 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $456 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $261 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $261 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $263 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $263 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 27d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $232 30d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $232 32d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $263 33d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $263 35d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 35d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 38d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 38d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 44d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $248 44d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $248 45d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 45d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 46d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 46d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 46d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 47d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 47d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $236 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.99 · official $22.99 (match) · 291 history records