Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x218f…367e other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-3%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%47W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$102
sports 14% $0
economics 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 38% -18.3%
all 53 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 17% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -12.8%
10% -18.5% 2% -21.1%
15% -26.4% 2% -28.7%
20% -33.6% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$49 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses47 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage558d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $69 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $53 +$8 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $47 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $165 −$156 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $155 +$11 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $95 +$59 +62%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $95 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 28 $87 +$8 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $66 +$8 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $58 +$8 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $47 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 18 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 13 $39 +$2 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 03 $29 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $29 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 08 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? Feb 28 $42 −$21 -50%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 26 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21? Feb 22 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14? Feb 13 $40 +$3 +9%
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $37 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $223 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $224 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $80 42d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 42d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $75 43d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 43d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $69 43d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 43d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $61 48d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $53 49d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 50d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 51d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $43 51d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $47 51d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $9 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $10 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $3 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $3 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $41 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $19 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $16 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $42 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $23 141d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $166 141d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $155 145d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 62¢ $95 147d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.90 · official $439.90 (match) · 117 history records