Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

21 0x218f…ecfa other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$91 (-16%) realized −$84 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day11.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-66.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-63.1%	-66.6%	25%	25%	-58.9%
≤30d	4	-63.1%	-66.6%	25%	25%	-58.9%
≤90d	4	-63.1%	-66.6%	25%	25%	-58.9%
all	4	-63.1%	-66.6%	25%	25%	-58.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-66.6%	25%	-58.9%
10%	-69.8%	25%	-62.8%
15%	-72.7%	25%	-66.4%
20%	-75.4%	0%	-69.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -63% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$343

Realized−$84

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)4 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day11.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	67¢	60¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$50	+$18	+36%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$21	−$18	-88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$36	−$35	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	59m
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	BUY Yes	71¢	$151	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$68	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	83¢	$50	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$50	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$51	24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$36	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.20 · official $343.20 (match) · 12 history records