Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2190…5bde sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$914 (+9%) realized +$838 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,591
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 80% 60% +25.3%
≤30d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 80% 60% +25.3%
≤90d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 80% 60% +25.3%
all 5 +10.1% -0.3% 80% 60% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 60% +25.3%
10% -9.9% 40% +13.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 40% +2.3%
20% -26.6% 40% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$462 vs −$332 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.56 per $1 lost it wins $5.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized+$838
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 70¢ $485 $560 +$76 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $993 +$540 +54%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $598 +$72 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 +$19 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,511 +$1,215 +80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $340 −$332 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $490 19m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'I BUY 41¢ $494 22m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $728 34m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $1,017 35m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,533 37m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $670 39m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $525 39m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $993 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $598 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $506 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY 11¢ $123 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY 9¢ $92 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY 6¢ $193 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY 12¢ $359 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY 16¢ $461 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY 6¢ $204 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY 9¢ $288 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY 12¢ $369 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win o BUY 19¢ $511 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ja BUY 34¢ $1,020 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,727 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $501 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 25¢ $340 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,011 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.24 · official $6,292.22 · 24 history records