Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
21 0x2193…e6ca sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,469 (+20%) realized +$3,645 · open +$824
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$3,406
other 41% +$1,393
crypto 7% −$19
world 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +13.2% +2.4% 42% 33% +22.9%
≤30d 24 +13.2% +2.4% 42% 33% +22.9%
≤90d 24 +13.2% +2.4% 42% 33% +22.9%
all 24 +13.2% +2.4% 42% 33% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 33% +22.9%
10% -7.4% 33% +11.2%
15% -16.3% 33% +0.4%
20% -24.5% 29% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$891 vs −$357 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7,532
Realized+$3,645
Unrealized+$824
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1,503 $1,669 +$166 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,503 $1,497 −$6 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,503 $1,490 −$13 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,481 −$19 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 56¢ $700 $706 +$6 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $0 $689 +$689 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $192 −$188 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,736 −$99 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,019 +$2,796 +274%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $815 +$1,423 +174%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$689 +670%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $807 +$319 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,019 +$1,219 +120%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 +$3 +2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 +$917 +180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$62 -62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $714 0m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $709 0m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 10m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 11m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 23m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $514 24m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,542 25m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 30¢ $192 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar $102 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $4,446 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $2,634 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,815 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $511 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $406 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $1,017 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,238 23h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 14¢ $205 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $202 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $815 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 28h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $791 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,532.45 · official $7,532.45 (match) · 61 history records