Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x2194…903b crypto 185 markets active 7d ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$331 (+1%) realized +$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate79%147W / 38L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$263
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$215
other 1% −$45
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 25% -11.1%
≤30d 26 -3.9% -13.1% 73% 15% -22.7%
≤90d 47 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 26% -17.2%
all 185 +19.5% +8.1% 79% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 16% -9.3%
10% -2.2% 9% -18.0%
15% -11.7% 7% -25.9%
20% -20.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$516) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$82 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses147 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage244d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $141 −$8 -5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $85 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $166 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$51 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $229 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $47 −$42 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $173 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 27 $569 −$37 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 15 $475 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2000 history records