Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2199…b783 other 450 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,449 (-1%) realized −$2,554 · open −$895
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate88%395W / 53L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,104per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$4,583
sports 23% −$2,849
crypto 17% +$17
world 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.3% -14.4% 85% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 172 +0.2% -9.4% 85% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 448 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 1% -10.7%
all 448 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 1% -10.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,477) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$280 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,236
Realized−$2,554
Unrealized−$895
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses395 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions2
Markets (closed)448 / 450
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$1,104
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 96¢ 68¢ $1,438 $1,007 −$431 (-30%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 30¢ $692 $229 −$464 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,439 +$50 +4%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $658 +$41 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $512 +$2 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3,311 +$104 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $411 +$12 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,810 +$120 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $838 −$499 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,128 +$60 +5%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $675 −$4 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $665 $0 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2,245 +$42 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2,190 +$48 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2,157 +$38 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1,110 +$16 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,426 +$58 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2,042 +$40 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $799 +$23 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,441 −$1,441 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,472 +$44 +3%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $944 −$537 -57%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,465 +$70 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,824 +$36 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,023 +$38 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $753 +$8 +1%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $654 +$47 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1,443 +$42 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2,518 +$37 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,171 +$8 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,951 +$53 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1,161 +$20 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2,373 +$49 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1,978 +$20 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $911 +$22 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $423 +$13 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1,894 +$36 +2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $2,407 +$53 +2%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1,217 +$35 +3%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $730 +$16 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $970 +$20 +2%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $543 +$28 +5%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $238 +$4 +2%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $3,112 +$29 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3,322 +$13 +0%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,477 +$20 +1%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1,832 −$11 -1%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $768 +$5 +1%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $62 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $3,255 +$60 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1,054 +$40 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $97 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $259 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $14 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $193 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $232 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $115 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $460 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $214 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $358 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1,490 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $284 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $303 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $171 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $682 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $98 5h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 8h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $698 8h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $630 9h
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $28 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $93 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,485 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $376 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $109 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,235.57 · official $947.78 · 3500 history records