Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219a…f65b sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+5%) realized +$111 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$157
other 13% −$48
world 3% +$3
politics 3% −$32
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 34% -4.3%
≤30d 44 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 34% -4.3%
≤90d 44 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 34% -4.3%
all 44 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 34% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 34% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 30% -13.4%
15% -30.9% 23% -21.8%
20% -37.6% 18% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$18 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions10
Markets (closed)44 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner KOLESIE 23¢ 60¢ $100 $265 +$165 (+165%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 89¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-2%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 88¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 28¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $21 $1 −$20 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Infinite 10¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Infinite 17¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$31 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $99 +$52 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $105 +$60 +57%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $264 −$87 -33%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $91 +$35 +38%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $184 −$97 -53%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $51 +$47 +92%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 +$35 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $131 +$38 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 −$16 -80%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$44 -73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$48 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 +$142 +468%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$29 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$20 +54%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$23 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$6 +33%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 +$28 +130%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $0 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $20 20m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 29m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 23¢ $26 37m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 23¢ $77 37m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 12¢ $28 52m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 22¢ $51 58m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 7¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 13¢ $48 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $97 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $151 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $66 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $166 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $99 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 63¢ $105 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 16¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 38¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 22¢ $136 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 18¢ $59 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 11¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 12¢ $29 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 20¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 26¢ $76 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $125 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 71¢ $91 3h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 13¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 39¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 32¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 47¢ $149 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 20¢ $34 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.56 · official $350.88 · 190 history records