Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219b…78b1 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$11
other 27% −$5
sports 21% −$4
world 4% +$1
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.8% -23.8% 25% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 7 -9.2% -17.8% 14% 14% -10.5%
≤90d 8 -8.1% -16.8% 12% 12% -10.4%
all 84 -7.3% -16.2% 7% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage382d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3 $0 +15%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $171 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $87 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 19 $83 +$1 +1%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $87 −$1 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $86 +$1 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $1 $0 -35%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $89 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $1 $0 -33%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 30h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 30h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 3d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $6 15d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $81 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $82 18d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 29d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 122d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $83 130d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 136d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 151d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.67 · official $76.67 (match) · 415 history records