Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x219b…c0be other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$306 (-6%) realized −$117 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.2% -16.9% 25% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 4 -8.2% -16.9% 25% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 7 -8.4% -17.2% 14% 0% -18.2%
all 7 -8.4% -17.2% 14% 0% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -18.2%
10% -25.1% 0% -26.0%
15% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
20% -39.0% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$59 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,666
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage76d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,250 $1,066 −$184 (-15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $605 $600 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $641 −$31 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $730 −$88 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $475 +$17 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $904 −$177 -20%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $458 −$36 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $205 −$9 -4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $113 −$16 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $611 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $610 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $641 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $642 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $730 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $727 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $492 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 36d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 42d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $411 42d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $422 42d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $88 42d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 42d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $196 42d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $97 42d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 42d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $94 47d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 48d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 48d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 48d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 48d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $144 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,666.13 · official $1,666.13 (match) · 121 history records