Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219d…655e crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-5%) realized −$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%53W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$17
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$341
sports 5% +$25
other 3% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.1% -28.6% 57% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 156 -43.9% -49.2% 34% 25% -15.1%
≤90d 156 -43.9% -49.2% 34% 25% -15.1%
all 156 -43.9% -49.2% 34% 25% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.2% 25% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -54.1% 18% -23.2%
15% -58.5% 13% -30.6%
20% -62.6% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses53 / 103
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage17d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $136 +$54 +40%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$12 +21%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 $0 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$24 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $48 −$16 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $109 −$108 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $59 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$76 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $133 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$66 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $256 −$155 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $123 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $159 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$70 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $159 +$50 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$58 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $220 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $195 +$57 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $211 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$23 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 35m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 47m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $65 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $38 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 3h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 3h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $42 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 8h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $18 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records