Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219f…12d8 world 221 markets active 3d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-3%) realized +$129 · open −$352
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%80W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$40
14 days−$58
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$270
tech 18% +$59
other 14% −$114
crypto 6% +$38
politics 4% −$6
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.3% -0.2% 90% 45% -5.2%
≤30d 81 +1.5% -8.1% 86% 35% -6.5%
≤90d 96 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 33% -7.3%
all 96 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 33% -7.3%
10% -19.2% 12% -16.2%
15% -27.0% 7% -24.3%
20% -34.2% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$3,475
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$352
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses80 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions125
Markets (closed)96 / 221
History coverage51d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 125 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $265 $274 +$9 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $183 $172 −$12 (-6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $112 $122 +$10 (+9%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 80¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 84¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $65 $76 +$11 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $69 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 97¢ 90¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-8%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 97¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+33%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 68¢ $80 $59 −$21 (-26%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 65¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 63¢ 84¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +43%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $32 +$5 +16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $60 +$2 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $110 +$7 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $160 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $90 +$4 +5%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $103 −$98 -96%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $30 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +25%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $63 +$9 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $75 +$25 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $73 +$36 +49%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$22 +32%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $27 +$3 +11%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$6 +14%
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $64 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $30 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $80 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $143 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,474.52 · official $3,474.57 (match) · 640 history records