Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a1…98be other 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-17%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$14
other 37% −$3
politics 6% $0
world 6% −$7
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 27% -38.4%
≤30d 26 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 27% -38.4%
≤90d 26 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 27% -38.4%
all 26 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 27% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 27% -38.4%
10% -35.7% 19% -44.3%
15% -41.9% 19% -49.7%
20% -47.6% 19% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +105%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $21 −$10 -47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 64¢ $1 7h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 43¢ $1 7h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 60¢ $1 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 8h
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $1 19h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 93¢ $6 20h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 98¢ $5 21h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 67¢ $2 22h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 42¢ $1 24h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $5 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 33h
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Oliver Tarvet 65¢ $1 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 65¢ $1 47h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 57¢ $1 47h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $1 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 43¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.92 · official $10.93 (match) · 59 history records