Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a2…abb3 sports 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$532 (+3%) realized +$532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%182W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$261
14 days−$1,508
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$591
crypto 3% −$92
other 2% −$194
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -27.7% -34.6% 37% 33% -0.1%
≤30d 224 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 45% -12.2%
≤90d 329 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 53% -8.1%
all 329 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 53% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 53% -8.1%
10% -19.4% 52% -16.9%
15% -27.2% 47% -24.9%
20% -34.3% 37% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$41 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses182 / 147
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)329 / 329
History coverage59d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 329 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $61 +$34 +57%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $124 +$56 +45%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $123 +$12 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$27 -54%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $335 +$441 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 +$35 +97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $199 −$183 -92%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$54 +89%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $95 +$25 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$13 -59%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$17 -81%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $21 +$17 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14 +$15 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $112 −$35 -32%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 +$57 +76%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$7 -25%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $299 +$320 +107%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $150 −$148 -99%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $93 −$39 -42%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $82 +$3 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $41 +$3 +6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $398 +$316 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $734 +$67 +9%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $200 −$198 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $244 +$124 +51%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $299 +$242 +81%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $409 −$230 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 96¢ $95 47m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 64¢ $51 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $180 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 48¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 60¢ $134 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $123 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $23 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $40 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $30 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $23 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $19 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $15 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $776 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $335 43h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $70 43h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 5¢ $16 43h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $199 44h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $90 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $19 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 848 history records