Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a5…9a18 crypto 608 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate66%390W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$111
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$57
world 30% −$68
other 18% −$52
politics 7% +$9
culture 2% +$4
tech 2% +$2
sports 1% +$10
finance 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 16% -10.4%
≤30d 366 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 15% -11.7%
≤90d 521 -3.8% -13.0% 69% 16% -11.7%
all 588 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 15% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 15% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 7% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 4% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses390 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)588 / 608
History coverage115d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 87¢ 91¢ $85 $90 +$5 (+5%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 73¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 87¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 52¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $289 −$5 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $18 +$4 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $111 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -65%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $145 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $254 −$2 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $106 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 40m
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 7h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 9h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 9h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.11 · official $271.71 (match) · 2733 history records