Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a6…c753 world 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$166 (-3%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$106
14 days−$143
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$93
tech 13% −$43
economics 9% −$21
politics 5% −$28
finance 4% −$6
other 4% −$3
crypto 1% −$6
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.0% -13.2% 21% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 46 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 63 -8.9% -17.5% 21% 3% -12.6%
all 63 -8.9% -17.5% 21% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 3% -12.6%
10% -25.4% 0% -21.0%
15% -32.6% 0% -28.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage57d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $132 −$6 -4%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $102 −$5 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $39 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $142 +$2 +1%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $51 −$8 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $490 −$18 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $32 −$4 -12%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $245 −$4 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 14 $205 −$12 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $79 −$4 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $30 −$2 -8%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $194 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $52 −$3 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $59 −$2 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $493 −$9 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $184 −$3 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $208 −$6 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $292 −$15 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $28 −$2 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $62 −$6 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$13 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $187 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $172 −$4 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $156 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $28 −$13 -47%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 08 $44 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $2 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $367 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $38 −$6 -16%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $101 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 31 $20 −$5 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $114 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $240 −$4 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $215 −$4 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $85 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 4m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $126 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $62 19h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 20h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $82 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $84 23h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 24h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $37 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 20¢ $39 25h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $62 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $80 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $78 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 14¢ $27 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 16¢ $1 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $59 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $73 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $32 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $4 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $19 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $51 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 84¢ $84 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.70 · official $11.70 (match) · 362 history records