Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a7…faa1 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-11%) realized −$77 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$72
other 36% +$14
crypto 7% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.6% +1.9% 67% 67% +4.0%
≤30d 15 +12.6% +1.9% 67% 67% +4.0%
≤90d 40 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 52% -15.4%
all 65 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 45% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 45% -18.0%
10% -33.1% 42% -25.9%
15% -39.6% 35% -33.0%
20% -45.5% 28% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)65 / 81
History coverage100d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+73%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Warriors vs. Kings Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $30 +$24 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $55 −$21 -38%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $60 −$33 -56%
Spain vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $3 −$2 -60%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $15 −$5 -35%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $35 −$4 -11%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $30 +$17 +58%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 10 $30 +$10 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Mar 29 $5 +$7 +148%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Mar 29 $1 +$1 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 29 $5 +$3 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 29 $1 +$1 +61%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 29 $10 −$3 -34%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 28 $5 +$2 +45%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Mar 26 $5 +$3 +64%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Mar 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $8 −$2 -31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 −$6 -61%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $7 +$5 +73%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 14 $1 $0 +22%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.74 · official $125.74 (match) · 204 history records