Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21aa…95fa politics 3 markets active 2d ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+7%) realized −$117 · open +$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -44.5% -49.8% 0% 0% -49.8%
≤30d 1 -44.5% -49.8% 0% 0% -49.8%
≤90d 1 -44.5% -49.8% 0% 0% -49.8%
all 1 -44.5% -49.8% 0% 0% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 0% -49.8%
10% -54.6% 0% -54.6%
15% -59.0% 0% -59.0%
20% -63.0% 0% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$139 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$199
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage71d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $540 $735 +$195 (+36%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $114 $118 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $311 −$139 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.47 · official $853.47 (match) · 82 history records