Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21aa…4d61 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%31W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$643per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$23
14 days+$28
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -16.5% -24.5% 83% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -42.7% -48.1% 57% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -35.1% -41.3% 61% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -46.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -52.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -56.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,092) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$2,062
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses31 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage210d
Avg bet$643
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,062 $2,058 −$4 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 27 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,046 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,042 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,035 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,031 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 21? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 3? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,102 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 10 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,097 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? Mar 08 $1,095 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,092 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 5? Mar 06 $1,090 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,086 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $1,084 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1,081 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $1,077 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 28? Mar 01 $1,073 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,070 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,068 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,066 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $1,060 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 9? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,062 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,054 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,050 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,046 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,042 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,035 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,031 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $2 30d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 37d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 47d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 3? BUY No 0¢ $2 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 67d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 76d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 100d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,099 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 112d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,062.07 · official $2,062.07 (match) · 96 history records